The Future Behind Us

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In Backing into the Future, Bernard Knox makes a fascinating observation:

"The early Greek imagination envisaged the past and the present as in front of us - we can see them. The future, invisible, is behind us... Paradoxical though it may sound to the modern ear, this image of our journey through time may be truer to reality than the medieval and modern feeling that we face the future as we make way forward into it."

How appropriate this mental model is in view of the recent and no so recent past. As pointed out by Perez, we should view the burst of the "dot-com bubble" in 2000 and the financial collapse in 2008 as a double bubble which is part of the fifth techno-economic cycle. Building on this premise. I made a bullish 2010 prediction for the Cutter Consortium. Here is the botton line from this prediction:

"I expect 2010 to be the first year of a prolonged golden age. Serious as the various problems we all are wrestling with after the 2008-2009 macro-economic crisis are, they should be viewed as systemic to the way a new generation of revolutionary infrastructure gets assimilated in economy and society." 

Likewise, my prediction for The Agile Executive is optimistic with respect to Agile Business Service Management:

"Agile breaks out of Development into IT (and beyond) in the form of Agile Infrastructure and Agile Business Service Management."

Click here for details of my techno-economic prediction for Cutter, here for my Agile-focused predictions for The Agile Executive. 

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Great time of year for predictions. My focus on the past/present (…which is in front of me according to your quote from Bernard Knox) coupled with limited insight into the future (…which would be behind me) inhibits my acceptance that 2010 is the beginning of a “prolonged golden age” originating with a “new generation of revolutionary infrastructure” …that “gets assimilated in economy and society.” What I envision is captured in the descriptive word “revolutionary” where there are big losers and big winners as a result of the tumultuous change that comes with revolution.

Who are the big losers? …I would venture that it is primarily those mired in traditional business practices or who are heavily dependent upon the old ways of financing, messaging, producing, distributing and taxing. Who are the big winners? …I’m unsure that they can be readily identified …but agree they will surface. The more pertinent question is what are the attributes required to be a big winner? The good news is that the means to benefit from the revolutionary infrastructure should be much more open to the creative energy generated from content ownership, intelligence and fortitude …and less restricted to the positional power so typical in current corporate environments. Of more immediate interest …what is the role of technology management in this potential business free-for-all?

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This page contains a single entry by Israel Gat published on December 23, 2009 7:19 AM.

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